JAPAN: Economics: March Data Watch: Labor, Consumption, CPI
LABOR
Stalled, unemployment rate up due to worker contraction, Tankan showed strong interest in new grad hires, so eyes forward to late spring.
The latest Labor releases show the Job Openings Ratio (Job Offers/Job Applicants) hovering at ~.92 with no significant change since last November. Unemployment rate (unemployed/workforce) dropped 17bp to 4.50%. However, the main driver of this gain is a drop in the workforce of roughly 420,000 and a drop of about 140,000 in the number of unemployed. This marks a roughly 280,000 drop in the number of workers (employed). The good is that this is the first time in 3 months we've seen a drop in unemployment. The bad is that employment numbers dropped by more.
CONSUMPTION
1Q Consumption numbers showing strength. 1Q GDP prelimnary numbers due May 17th. Consumption guides toward strong 1Q GDP numbers.
MoM Consumption was down, looks about -1.0%. YoY consumption up 1.7% (this number is probably driven in large part by the New Year's effect we've mentioned before). QoQ numbers are the most reliable to look at, and though Feb. and March were weak, January's strong numbers (speculatively overflow from nov-dec) resulted in the first QoQ growth since April-June '04.
CPI
March numbers in-line. Look to 1Q '06 at earliest for zero-bound crossing.
March YoY CPI roughly -0.3%, a gain against Feb. -0.4% YoY numbers but still not as large a recovery as needed to signal market positively. Look for 1Q '06 earliest for CPI to show marked improvement. Rice prices have already rebounded to normalized prices. Electricity / Gas Prices and Fixed-Line Phone prices should show recovery by year end. Gasoline/Kerosene prices are the riskiest factors, with the Macro environment playing a large part, but should stabilize or trend up.
Stalled, unemployment rate up due to worker contraction, Tankan showed strong interest in new grad hires, so eyes forward to late spring.
The latest Labor releases show the Job Openings Ratio (Job Offers/Job Applicants) hovering at ~.92 with no significant change since last November. Unemployment rate (unemployed/workforce) dropped 17bp to 4.50%. However, the main driver of this gain is a drop in the workforce of roughly 420,000 and a drop of about 140,000 in the number of unemployed. This marks a roughly 280,000 drop in the number of workers (employed). The good is that this is the first time in 3 months we've seen a drop in unemployment. The bad is that employment numbers dropped by more.
CONSUMPTION
1Q Consumption numbers showing strength. 1Q GDP prelimnary numbers due May 17th. Consumption guides toward strong 1Q GDP numbers.
MoM Consumption was down, looks about -1.0%. YoY consumption up 1.7% (this number is probably driven in large part by the New Year's effect we've mentioned before). QoQ numbers are the most reliable to look at, and though Feb. and March were weak, January's strong numbers (speculatively overflow from nov-dec) resulted in the first QoQ growth since April-June '04.
CPI
March numbers in-line. Look to 1Q '06 at earliest for zero-bound crossing.
March YoY CPI roughly -0.3%, a gain against Feb. -0.4% YoY numbers but still not as large a recovery as needed to signal market positively. Look for 1Q '06 earliest for CPI to show marked improvement. Rice prices have already rebounded to normalized prices. Electricity / Gas Prices and Fixed-Line Phone prices should show recovery by year end. Gasoline/Kerosene prices are the riskiest factors, with the Macro environment playing a large part, but should stabilize or trend up.
posted by howa at
4/26/2005
